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January 2024 Market Insight

Amidst the housing market's whirlwind, haunted by concerns about home prices, interest rates, and economy-induced nightmares (or perhaps, your neighbor's aunt's dog's housing crisis predictions), I'm here to share a candid perspective – and no, the silver lining isn't hidden under your imaginary dog's chew toys.

Let's dive into some real (estate) talk:

We might just be experiencing the golden age of home buying. Seriously, this could be as close as it gets to a real estate fire sale. Why? The supply and demand conundrum in the real estate realm persists, and the only thing keeping home prices from reaching the stars is the anticipation of interest rates lacing up their dancing shoes and hitting the 5% range.

Hold onto your mortgage calculators, because here's the lowdown: rumors are circulating about not one, not two, but four Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024. We're teetering on the brink of that sweet 5%-5.5% interest rate territory. My advice to you, my astute clients, is to take the rate hit now to dodge the potential home price hit in the next 6-12 months. It's like choosing between a bad haircut and a bad hair day—choose your poison wisely.

Now, let me paint a picture with a hypothetical scenario, because who doesn't love a good imaginary real estate rollercoaster ride?

Present Day:

  • Purchase price: $300,000

  • Interest rate: 6.75%

  • Down payment: 10%

  • Loan amount: $270,000

  • Principal & Interest: $1,994

Fast Forward 12 Months:

  • Federal Reserve dropping rates to 5%-5.5%

  • Home's now worth: $330,000

  • Your Loan Balance: $267,122

  • Your Home Equity: $62,878

  • New Payment after Refinancing: $1,517

Now, envision if you waited. The same home you hesitated on would look like this:

Delayed Purchase:

  • Purchase Price: $330,000

  • Interest Rate: 5.5%

  • Down Payment: 10% or $33,000 ($3,000 more than a year ago)

  • Loan Amount: $297,000 ($27,000 more than a year ago)

  • Principal & Interest Payment: $1,686 ($169 more than the refinance payment)

  • Home Equity: $33,000 ($29,878 lower than if you bought 12 months ago)

Let's break it down:

Tally Time:

  • Equity Difference: $29,878

  • Payment Difference (after refinance): $169 Lower ($2,028 annualized payment savings)

  • Down Payment Difference: $3,000

Sure, these are all numbers from the imaginary kingdom of Hypothetical, but the trends suggest we're heading towards this reality. Waiting for rates to hit rock bottom is like waiting for a cat to walk a straight line—it's a losing game. The housing supply issue? Buckle up; it's not getting solved anytime soon.

In the grand saga of history, buying real estate has been a stellar investment. So, don't get caught up in the nitty-gritty of interest rates and market fears. Seize the moment, folks. Your future self will thank you for the wise investment and the chuckles you had along the way.